Why Trump’s approval is sinking faster this time

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CHART 1 • Why Trump’s approval is sinking faster this time

Donald Trump’s net approval has fallen to -20, its lowest point yet in his second term. That is not just another bad poll. It suggests his presidency is losing support faster, and from a weaker starting point, than it did the first time around. The Economist’s tracker shows his rating now sits below where it was at the comparable stage of his first term.

What matters is why. This does not look like a purely partisan slide. Reuters and Ipsos found growing dissatisfaction over the cost of living and rising concern over the Iran war, with fuel prices adding to the pressure. That makes the decline more dangerous politically, because voters are often less concerned with ideology than with whether life feels more expensive and less stable.

The comparison with Biden is revealing. Biden’s approval eroded more gradually and in a different economic climate. Trump’s drop looks sharper and more abrupt, which suggests events are biting faster this time. Voters may tolerate noise for a while, but they are less forgiving when disorder starts feeding into prices, conflict and confidence.

Source: Economist

Governments are operating in an atmosphere where trust is already low, markets are already jumpy and conflict carries a price long before the first bill arrives. That makes modern politics feel more brittle than many leaders would like to admit.

There is a wider lesson in that. Power is never just about what a country can command on paper. It is also about what the public will tolerate, what industry can replace and what investors have already chosen to believe. Strength can look solid right up until the moment it is tested.

I’ve got four more charts that expand on this story, but they are for paid subscribers. Consider joining if you want the full edition.