Venezuela after Maduro: what the data says, not the headlines

SPECIAL REPORT: Venezuela

Venezuela rarely disappears. It simply recedes, becoming a background problem until something forces it back into focus.

That moment arrived over the weekend. A sudden escalation involving the United States and the removal of Nicolás Maduro from power has returned Venezuela to the centre of geopolitical attention. The reaction has been loud and polarised, but the underlying conditions did not change overnight. They have been building quietly for years.

The charts you are about to see capture that longer story. Economic collapse followed by partial stabilisation. A society adapting to scarcity rather than escaping it. Political authority eroded not in a single break, but through exhaustion and loss of credibility. What looks like a dramatic turning point is better understood as pressure finally becoming visible.

This is where interpretation matters. Data suggests that parts of the Venezuelan economy have stopped deteriorating at the pace seen earlier in the crisis. But stabilisation is not recovery. It does not restore trust, rebuild institutions or reverse the social damage already done. Expectations have shifted faster than fundamentals.

That tension runs through every chart. Improvement exists, but it is narrow and fragile. Constraint remains widespread. The data tells a more disciplined story than the headlines, showing where momentum has genuinely changed and where it has not.

I publish a newsletter like this daily, sharing five charts I think matter most, along with a clear explanation of why. It is a paid newsletter, but I’ve made this special report on Venezuela free. If you want a clearer view of what is actually changing the world, consider joining for $10 a month or $100 a year.

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CHART 1 • The crash of the Venezuelan oil industry

Source: Bloomberg

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CHART 2 • Venezuela has relied on China for oil sales

Source: Reuters

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CHART 3 • China buys less from Venezuela than it does from Russia and Iran

Source: Reuters

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CHART 4 • Most Americans oppose invading Venezuela

Source: YouGov

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CHART 5 • Most in America oppose removing Maduro from power

Source: Strength in Numbers

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CHART 6 • Americans oppose Trump’s actions against Venezuela

Source: Strength in Numbers

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CHART 7 • Venezuela’s oil reserves do not reflect production

Source: Al Jazeera

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CHART 8 • Venezuela’s expats around the world

Source: Milhaud Maps

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CHART 9 • Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world

Source: Econovisuals

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CHART 10 • Venezuela’s oil production and refinery infrastructure

Source: Energy Now

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CHART 11 • Chavez vs Maduro in term of economic growth

Source: Statista

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CHART 12 • US imports of Venezuela’s oil

Source: Statista

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CHART 13 • Venezuela’s GDP per capita

Source: Our World in Data

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CHART 14 • Venezuela’s sits on a fifth of the world’s oil

Source: Statista

Moments like this test how seriously we take data. Political events dominate attention, but they often obscure the slower forces that determine outcomes. Markets, migration, income and behaviour do not reset simply because power changes hands.

These charts are a reminder that progress is uneven and often misread. Numbers can show movement without delivering relief. Stability can coexist with deep fragility. Holding those ideas together is uncomfortable, but necessary.

I share charts like this every day that expand on stories like this and add context that sits beyond the headlines. They are for paid subscribers. Consider joining if you want the full edition and a clearer view of what is actually changing the world.