The huge fall in illegal US border crossings
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US agents logged more than 300,000 southwest border encounters last December. By March the count dropped below 8,000 – the lowest tally in twenty-five years. Tougher asylum rules, extra military support and fast deportation flights clearly deterred many would-be crossers.
Supporters hail the numbers as proof that strict policy works. Critics answer that untracked “got-aways” may still rise and new camps in northern Mexico show the human tide has not vanished, only shifted.
Past episodes offer caution. Similar dips under Barack Obama in 2012, Donald Trump in 2020 and Joe Biden in early 2024 all rebounded within months as economic need and cartel tactics evolved. Without legal work visas and faster asylum courts demand rebuilds.
Domestic employers already feel a pinch. Texas farmers and Arizona hoteliers report worker shortages during peak spring planting and tourist seasons. The economic pull has not gone away; it is simply paused.
For lasting calm analysts point to three levers: regional job permits that channel lawful mobility, speedier case hearings to deter frivolous claims and climate investment in countries where drought wrecks crops. Until those pieces align each sharp drop risks becoming the quiet before another surge.
Source: Robin Brooks
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