The EU still relies on Russian gas

Five charts to start your day

I remember when it happened. Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022 while we were on a family ski holiday during Switzerland's Sportferien. It was not a surprise. We had heard the threats and watched the build-up, but it was still unsettling.

The repercussions came quickly. A Ukrainian friend asked if we had a spare room. Social media filled with stories from Ukraine. Then our heating bill began to rise. It took about nine months before we really felt it.

Since then Europe has adapted by replacing most Russian pipeline gas with liquefied natural gas. However, Russian-origin LNG is now creeping into the EU through France, Belgium and Spain, with smaller volumes getting into the Netherlands and Italy.

CHART 1 • EU gas imports by Russian route

Take a look at the chart below. In 2021, Russian gas supplied about 45% of EU imports, dominated by Nord Stream and Yamal. After explosions, sanctions and rerouting, the mix changed rather than vanished. Pipeline volumes through Ukraine shrank, Nord Stream went to zero, yet two channels persisted. TurkStream still moves natural gas into south east Europe and cargoes of Russian LNG berth at EU ports.

The bars show the step down clearly. Russia's share fell to roughly 23% in 2022, then 15% in 2023. It ticked up to 19% in 2024 as LNG backfilled missing pipeline supply. The European Commission expects about 13% in 2025 if current contracts hold. That is a major reduction, not independence.

Why this matters is simple. Gas remains the swing fuel for power and industry, and winters are unpredictable. Each percentage point of residual reliance leaves Europe exposed to price spikes, political pressure and logistical choke points. A faster build out of LNG alternatives, storage, renewables and demand management can reduce that tail risk. Until then, Russian gas keep arriving by sea or the southern route, proof that energy transitions rarely involve clean breaks. Progress is real, vulnerability still lingers.

Source: Bloomberg