Solar power keeps proving the experts wrong

Five charts to start your day

Every revolution begins quietly, then suddenly looks inevitable. Solar power was once dismissed as expensive and unreliable, but it has spent the past decade proving every sceptic wrong. Forecasts that once looked bold now look timid. With more than 600 gigawatts added in 2024 alone, solar has become the fastest-growing and cheapest source of electricity on the planet.

Nowhere is that transformation more visible than in Europe. Spain’s vast sunlight and Germany’s relentless investment have pushed both countries to record solar generation. Even in the cloudier north, solar is becoming central to the power grid rather than a marginal addition. It’s proof that technology, policy and persistence can bend the limits of geography itself.

And yet, the paradox remains: fossil fuels are still winning the global energy race. Demand keeps rising faster than renewables can catch up, keeping oil, coal and gas as the pillars of the modern economy. While Norway offers a glimpse of what a clean future can look like – where almost every new car is electric – the world at large is still running on hydrocarbons.

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CHART 1 • Solar power keeps proving the experts wrong

Few technologies have outpaced expectations like solar. Each year, analysts predicted slower growth and each year, the industry shattered those forecasts. In 2024 alone, more than 600 gigawatts of solar capacity were added worldwide, far exceeding even the most optimistic projections from just a few years ago.

Falling costs, rapid innovation and supportive policy have made solar the cheapest and fastest-growing source of electricity in history. What was once a niche renewable is now reshaping global energy systems, particularly across China, India and the US.

The story of solar is not just about clean energy. It is about exponential adoption that even experts failed to imagine.

Source: The Economist: Off the Charts

The energy transition isn’t just a race against climate change. It’s a race against our own assumptions. Time and again, we underestimate how fast new technologies can scale when cost and convenience align. Solar did it. Electric cars are doing it. The question is whether policy and infrastructure can keep pace before the next crisis forces the issue.

I’ve got four more charts that expand on this story, but they’re for paid subscribers. Consider joining if you want the full edition.

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