Russia’s drone-and-missile surge

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I actually think that Russia’s strategy in Ukraine is destined for failure. It’s a crazy strategy when you think about it. You can’t win wars by firing swarms of drones and ballistic missiles at a country.

The reason I know this is because I come from London. This was a city that lived through the Blitz and fought the Luftwaffe above its skies in the bleakest of summers. What we saw back then was not the capitulation of a nation but the birth of something far greater. We saw the creation of modern Britain: defiant and strong, bold and undaunted by a superior enemy.

This military doctrine that the Russians have persistently pursued will no doubt continue a little longer, to the point where they exhaust their resources. It’s a stupid strategy, but then again the whole “Special Operation” was nothing more than a wasteful and expensive folly that failed to improve the Russian economy or the country’s standing in the world.

CHART 1 • Russia’s drone-and-missile surge

Russia’s air campaign has shifted gear. Since mid-summer, Shahed drone launches have surged, while missile interceptions have slipped. Ukraine’s air force reports 5,636 drones and 187 missiles launched through September, up 39 and 20 per cent respectively on August.

The mix is changing. Moscow is leaning on nightly drone swarms to stretch Ukrainian defences, then using upgraded Iskander and Kinzhal missiles to strike key sites. Analysts say Patriot interception rates climbed to around 37 per cent in August but collapsed to roughly 6 per cent in September as missiles used late dives and doglegs to evade.

September brought single-night barrages of almost 600 drones and 48 missiles. Most drones were downed, but several missiles got through. For Kyiv, the strain is as much industrial as tactical. Officials say three interceptors may be needed for each Shahed, implying thousands of rounds on heavy nights. Upgraded drone electronics are narrowing some of the gaps.

The near-term pattern is clear. Russia is testing air defences with mass drones and punctuating attacks with fewer but smarter ballistic shots. But as I said, aerial bombardment does not win wars. Russia has already lost. It should have captured Kviv by now.

Source: Financial Times

The best way to defeat your enemy is to basically bankrupt them. Even the best and largest armies have been defeated by smaller well organised groups. I'm not saying this is how it will play out in Ukraine, but the resources Russia will have to eventually commit to subdue Ukraine seem almost unimaginable.

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