Nuclear weapons spending on the rise

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Nuclear war occupies my thoughts more than I'd care to admit. While the world seems largely desensitised to this threat, it remains alarmingly real. Current geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West have brought us closer to the brink than many realise. Recent exchanges of nuclear rhetoric – each threat met with counter-threat – illustrate how quickly situations can escalate.

But there's a new dimension to this danger: we now navigate a world drowning in data, where signal is lost in noise. This information saturation creates a paradox: the more data we have, the less clarity we possess. In this fog of competing narratives and disinformation campaigns, the risk of catastrophic misunderstanding grows exponentially.

When decision-makers operate in an environment where truth is contested and social media can spark international incidents faster than diplomats can defuse them, the margin for error shrinks. The mechanisms that once prevented nuclear escalation – clear communication, shared facts, time for deliberation – are all compromised. In a hyper-connected yet fundamentally unclear world, the distance between misinterpretation and annihilation has never been shorter.

CHART 1 • Nuclear weapons spending on the rise

The nine nuclear powers spent over $100 billion on their arsenals in 2024 – up 11% from 2023 and 32% over five years. The US alone spent $56.8 billion, more than all other nations combined. But the real shock is the UK's 26% surge to $10.4 billion as it develops new warheads, while China races to add 100 warheads annually to its growing stockpile.

Private contractors pocketed at least $42.5 billion from nuclear weapons contracts, with ongoing deals worth $463 billion stretching decades ahead. Lockheed Martin's $383 million Trident missile "life extension" contract will keep these weapons operational until 2084. As tensions mount in Ukraine and Gaza, we're witnessing the most dangerous nuclear moment since the Cold War.

The numbers are staggering: $190,151 spent per minute on weapons that can end civilisation. While 98 countries have signed the Nuclear Ban Treaty, the nuclear powers are doubling down. If the pattern holds, we'll see $150 billion annual spending by 2030.

Source: Statista

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