Novo Nordisk stock surge reversed
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Few companies symbolised the post pandemic equity boom like Novo Nordisk. This chart shows that from 2021 to its 2024 peak, the shares rose more than 300%, dramatically outperforming the Stoxx 600 Health Care index. That entire period of outperformance has now been erased.
The inflection point followed extraordinary enthusiasm around obesity treatments, particularly after US approval of Wegovy in 2021. Investors extrapolated rapid demand growth, pricing power and a durable competitive advantage. At its peak in 2024, the stock had reached record highs and became one of Europe’s most valuable companies.
But equity markets rarely reward linear narratives indefinitely. Competitive pressure intensified. Questions emerged around supply constraints, pricing sustainability and the durability of first mover advantage in GLP 1 drugs. As expectations recalibrated, the multiple compressed. The result is stark. Years of relative gains versus the broader healthcare sector have been wiped out in less than two years.
The lesson is not about a single company. It is about momentum and valuation. When expectations embed near perfection, even strong operational performance may not be enough.
Source: Bloomberg
What stands out is not that leaders change. They always do. It is how quickly certainty dissolves once assumptions are challenged. A duopoly replaces a monopoly. A rotation replaces a consensus trade. A flagship stock becomes just another line on a sector chart.
I have four more charts that deepen this theme and explore where leadership may settle next, but they are for paid subscribers. If you want the full edition and the sharper context behind it, consider joining.
