Gold overtakes Bitcoin in the ETF race

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CHART 1 • Gold overtakes Bitcoin in the ETF race

When spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds began trading in January 2024 they unleashed an extraordinary surge of capital. For much of the following year the flow of money into Bitcoin funds comfortably exceeded that of gold. Investors appeared eager to gain regulated exposure to a digital asset that had long existed on the fringes of traditional finance. The narrative was simple. Bitcoin had finally been admitted to the institutional portfolio.

This chart suggests that this early enthusiasm has not been sustained. Bitcoin ETF inflows climbed rapidly through 2024 and into the first half of 2025 before flattening and eventually retreating.

Gold, by contrast, has been moving steadily in the opposite direction. Its inflows were modest for much of 2024, but momentum gathered through 2025 as investors returned to the metal in increasing size.

Part of the explanation lies in the very different roles these assets play in a portfolio. Bitcoin arrived with the promise of innovation and scarcity, but its price behaviour still resembles that of a high risk technology asset. Gold carries none of that excitement, yet it offers something many investors continue to value.

When uncertainty rises, investors still reach for the asset that has performed the same function for centuries.

Source: Ecoinometrics

One of the striking lessons in these charts is how persistent financial behaviour can be. Investors constantly talk about diversification, hedging and preparing for geopolitical shocks. Yet when you look at actual portfolios the allocations often remain heavily concentrated.

Part of that reflects a simple truth about markets. Conviction is always easier to talk about than to implement. Hedging uncertainty requires sacrificing potential returns, and many investors struggle to do that consistently.

I have included four additional charts in the full edition that explore how capital is positioning itself in a far more uncertain world. They are available to paid subscribers, so consider joining if you would like the complete analysis each week.