Gold keeps pace with Buffett

Five charts to start your day

The most powerful moves in markets aren’t the ones that make headlines daily. They’re the structural shifts that unfold over years, quietly accumulating force until the numbers become impossible to ignore.

Gold has surged over 62% in the past year, notching its 45th record high in 2025 and delivering its strongest annual performance since the financial crisis. Yet the real story isn’t just about recent gains. It’s about what’s happening beneath the surface as investors reassess what holds value in an era of unprecedented fiscal and monetary experimentation.

Gold peaked at $4,379 per ounce on 17 October. It has now fallen back to around $3,930 after a sharp 3% decline yesterday. Perhaps this is down to hopes of a US-China truce. There has been a lot of momentum and speculation behind gold, so this correction seems healthy.

However, the rise in gold preceding these events happened over decades. So while velocity matters, so does the breadth and depth of demand for gold that still exists. Gold ETFs have absorbed $67 billion this year. Central banks continue accumulating, especially in emerging markets. The factor pushing gold prices higher have been around a long time, which is what today’s first chart is about.

CHART 1 • Gold keeps pace with Buffett

Over the past two decades, gold has quietly matched one of the greatest investors in history. This chart shows that since 2004, gold has risen 805%, edging past Berkshire Hathaway’s 746% return. For an asset often dismissed as unproductive, that is an extraordinary performance.

Both have delivered annualised returns of around 11% over twenty years, but for very different reasons. Berkshire’s rise reflects the power of compounding in businesses like insurance, energy and consumer goods. Gold’s climb has been driven by recurring cycles of fear, inflation and currency debasement. Each time confidence in markets or policy wavered, gold found new strength.

The comparison poses a simple question. If gold can keep pace with Buffett through two decades of bull markets and crises, what does that say about the world’s faith in paper assets, like the dollar? Gold may be losing shine in the markets, yet faith in it has endured since the dawn of civilisation.

Source: Market Sentiment

With credit spreads tight, equity valuations elevated, and real rates facing downward pressure, gold is more than a crisis hedge or a retail fad. It’s functioning as a strategic anchor whilst trade tensions escalate, fiscal deficits widen, and questions about currency stability intensify. This isn’t an environment that will disappear overnight, just because trade tensions are easing a bit.

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