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The US probably wouldn't leave NATO under Donald Trump

In a charged rally, Trump starkly declared to delinquent NATO members, "No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want." His incendiary stance sent shockwaves through the NATO alliance, igniting fears that the very tenets of collective security through NATO would fall apart under Donald Trump.

But there is some merit behind this accusation, as seen in this first chart: the majority of NATO members do not spend the agreed 2 percent minimum of their GDP on defence. This includes some of Europe’s largest economies, like Germany and France.

However, this story isn’t clear-cut. NATO brings in significant revenue for the US through sophisticated arms sales, like the F-35 fighter jet, which it has developed with the financial orders secured with NATO allies. The strength and prosperity of the United States is also partly due to the support its allies have provided over the decades, who have helped protect US supply chains and provide added security.

NATO, in fact, enhances the US' military reach, enabling access to resources like oil and the importation of cheap manufactured goods. It has helped secure a high quality of living for Americans for decades. Disbanding NATO would, therefore, actually diminish the US’ standing in the world and possibly hurt the US more than its allies.

I don’t think this was Donald Trump’s point, however. He has always fancied himself as a deal maker, and “a deal is a deal”. If you agreed to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense, you need to stick to it.

NATO defence spending as a percentage of 2023 GDP

Source: Visual Capitalist

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