KILLER CHARTS

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China faces huge structural economic challenges in the 21st century

James Eagle's avatar
James Eagle
Jan 22, 2024
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Early on in my career, about 20 years ago, China was a major investment theme. It was the buzzword for emerging market investing. The country was erecting skyscrapers at a pace of one a week, building high-speed railways faster than any country in history, and creating hospitals, malls, and entire neighbourhoods (in some cases, entire cities) faster than many developed countries managed in centuries.

It was the workshop of the world and was enjoying economic growth at such a pace that it was always destined to overtake the US.

As an investment theme, the Greater China region attracted billions of investments. Asset managers rolled out countless products to give investors access, while large multinational companies set up operations, including type of firm from car manufacturers to banks. Everyone wanted a piece of the pie.

However, beneath the surface of economic prosperity, China had a problem. The country's construction boom post-Financial Crisis left it saddled with debt. Worse still, wages were rising, the population was ageing, and the country was starting to feel the effects of a once ill-thought-out one-child policy. That’s what this first chart is about. Deaths are gradually rising, while births have plummeted. China faces a demographic crisis.

Source: Bloomberg

Coming up:

  • The Hang Seng moves nowhere in 10 years

  • What’s been driving UK inflation?

  • The number of S&P 500 companies mentioning “ESG” on earnings calls

  • How much debt is there in the world?

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