Energy prices are threatening the inflation calm
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CHART 1 • Energy prices are threatening the inflation calm
The inflation story is becoming harder to relax about. OECD energy inflation reached 8.1% in March 2026, its highest level since February 2023, helping push headline inflation across the bloc to 4.0% from 3.4% a month earlier.
The awkward point is that this is not broad overheating. Food inflation fell in many countries and core inflation was broadly stable. The problem is energy, where price shocks can move quickly through transport, household bills and business costs.
That makes central banks’ job more difficult. They can look through temporary energy spikes, but only if households and markets believe the shock will fade. If energy stays hot, the promised return to easier money becomes much less certain.
Source: OECD
What worries me is that we still talk about the energy transition as if it is mostly a climate story. It is also an inflation story, a mining story, a manufacturing story and a geopolitical story. The world may be moving away from oil in transport, but it is moving towards other dependencies at the same time.
That is the uncomfortable part of progress. We do not escape the physical world. We just change which parts of it matter most.
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