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CHART 1 • China’s $1.2 trillion export lead
Despite the trade tariffs slapped on China by the United States, China hasn’t stopped exporting goods to the rest of the world. In fact, trade has hit a record $7.2 trillion when you combine both exports and imports. Despite the United States’ best efforts, China appears to be gaining during this trade war.
China still maintains a huge amount of manufacturing capacity and is therefore able to comfortably meet strong demand from overseas. Right now that appears to be growing faster than the growth of China’s imports. You can see that clearly in this chart. The gap between the blue and red lines has kept widening since the pandemic.
Source: Econovisual
This has occurred despite all the economic headwinds China has faced in recent years, including an over-indebted real estate market and other frictions that have weighed on the Chinese economy.
What we see here is a China that can increase competitive pressure on other large economies and trading blocs, and gain despite tariffs being levied on it. It is doing so with alarming strength, and this has made those economies, especially the United States, nervous.
Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: South Korea’s harder phase of catch-up, US peacetime debt, the proposed $1.5tn military budget and Italy’s smaller crisis premium. Together, they show how growth, promises and borrowing capacity constrain national power.
