China is pulling away in power generation

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CHART 1 • China is pulling away in power generation

This matters because electricity capacity is the quiet backbone of economic and geopolitical power. Every data centre, factory and electric vehicle ultimately runs on it. This chart shows how uneven that foundation has become.

China’s power generation capacity has surged from under one terawatt in 2010 to well above three terawatts today. The US, by contrast, has edged up only modestly, moving from just over one terawatt to around one point three. The gap is no longer marginal. It has widened year after year, and the pace on the Chinese side is accelerating rather than slowing.

The story is not just about renewables versus fossil fuels. It is about build speed and scale. China adds capacity across everything from coal and hydro to solar and wind, often simultaneously. The US system is slower, more fragmented and more constrained by permitting, local opposition and ageing grids. Even when investment is approved, it takes longer to turn plans into electrons.

This matters far beyond energy markets. Power capacity limits industrial growth, AI deployment and electrification targets. It also shapes resilience. Countries with surplus capacity can absorb shocks and support new demand. Those without it face trade offs and bottlenecks.

Source: Wall Street Journal

I keep coming back to how unglamorous this is. People argue about models, chips and geopolitics, but the constraint is often a transformer, a substation, a planning committee meeting that runs out of time. The future is built in spreadsheets and permits, not speeches.

What worries me is the complacency that comes with living in a rich country. We assume capacity will be there when we need it. But grids do not appear on demand. When you fall behind on the boring stuff, the exciting stuff stalls too.

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