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CHART 1 • US measles cases are the highest in 35 years

Measles ought not to be with us today. The reason children are still dying of measles is that vaccination against the disease is not universally applied by parents.

And now we are seeing a surge in infections in the United States. Confirmed US infections for 2026 have already moved above 2,300 cases. This is the highest annual total since the early ’90s. CDC data through to late July put this year above the full 2025 count, with large outbreaks driving this increase.

The problem is that outbreaks cluster where vaccination coverage is too low. This is why measles provides a very powerful warning signal and tells you when a system that once kept a dangerous disease rare has started to lose its coverage.

Source: Bloomberg

Something I forgot to mention is the cost imposed on a healthcare system when vaccination coverage is allowed to fall. The immediate tragedy is that children can die from preventable diseases such as measles. But the consequences extend much further. Outbreaks require hospital treatment, testing, contact tracing, isolation and emergency vaccination campaigns. They consume money and staff time that could have been used to treat other patients.

Immunisation can therefore produce a substantial return on investment. Preventing disease avoids medical costs, protects people’s ability to work and reduces the pressure placed on hospitals and public-health services.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: daily smoking across OECD countries, Gen Alpha’s dream jobs, US tariff receipts and the UK millionaire count. Together, they show how behaviour, aspiration and tax politics become clearer when the claim is checked against the number.

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CHART 1 • Productivity growth has outrun real wages in the US and UK

Productivity growth is enormously important because it determines how much an economy can produce from each hour worked. In theory, rising productivity creates room for higher wages, stronger profits and better living standards. But it does not guarantee that the gains will be shared equally.

These two Financial Times charts examine that question for the US and UK. They show that labour productivity has risen considerably faster than the purchasing power of workers’ hourly compensation over long periods.

This is because labour productivity isn’t solely driven by people working harder. It can also increase because workers are given better machinery, software and infrastructure or because companies reorganise production. And the newest innovation to help boost productivity is AI.

AI might help workers produce more, but it may also replace parts of their work while directing a greater share of the gains towards the companies that own the technology and computing infrastructure.

Source: Financial Times

I’ve always had an issue with economic growth because it really depends on what’s driving it. For instance, too much debt can drive economic growth in an unhealthy way. Likewise, the same issue applies to productivity. Increasing productivity can also lead to economic growth, but it can lead to job losses and wages rising less quickly, as you can see in the chart above. These are the issues that we really need to address.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: America’s four rental markets, record US mortgage debt-to-income ratios, UK small boat arrivals and Eritrean small boat arrivals. Together, they show how living-standard pressure appears in housing markets, household credit and migration routes.

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CHART 1 • China’s oil imports from the Persian Gulf collapse

When the US and Israel launched their war on Iran, causing the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, oil traders were expecting a brutal global price shock. Although that price shock happened, it wasn’t as bad as it could have been because of China. As the world’s biggest crude buyer, it actually cut imports so hard during this period that fewer barrels needed to be found elsewhere.

Let’s take a look at the data. In June, imports fell 41.3% from a year earlier to 7.12 million barrels a day, the lowest since October 2016. The Gulf portion of this visual dropped from 6.4 million barrels a day in February to 2.1 million in June.

During this period, Beijing drew on its domestic oil stocks and restricted fuel exports. Coal, renewables and electric vehicles helped the economy function with less imported oil. Less Chinese demand for oil actually helped contain prices. This is not a narrative commonly mentioned in the press, but this particular visual tells the story very well. China was obviously protecting its own interests, but it ended up also helping the global oil market.

Source: Econovisuals

Today’s newsletter is all about energy. Producing enough is only part of the challenge. A country that depends on imported oil or gas remains vulnerable to wars, price shocks and disrupted trade routes. Renewables can provide greater control by generating power at home, but they bring different risks, including unreliable weather, weak grids and limited storage. Energy risk never really disappears. It simply moves from oilfields, pipelines and shipping routes to electricity networks, batteries and the weather.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: America’s shift away from OPEC crude, the US production lead, Europe’s electricity mix and the lives saved by air conditioning. Sign up to read the full edition.

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CHART 1 • Global government bond yields near crisis-era highs

Global government bond yields are rising. Governments that have issued those bonds, therefore, will need to pay more interest to borrowers if they wish to borrow more or roll over existing debt. As older and cheaper debt expires and is replaced, the national interest bills of those countries gradually increases.

The Bloomberg Global Treasury Index yield-to-worst is back near the highest level since the financial crisis. Recent pressure has come from a mix of oil-driven inflation worries, heavy government borrowing and a much larger need for private capital.

This index is an average, so it hides substantial differences between countries. Even so, the broader message is difficult to ignore: the era of exceptionally cheap government borrowing has ended.

As cost of finance rises, new borrowing will becoming harder to justify because interest payments consume a larger share of government budgets, leaving less money for public services and investment. This could in turn impact economic growth over the longer term.

Source: Bloomberg

I know bond yields often confuse people and can seem abstract and boring. But this is an exceptional story, and it must be told. If government borrowing costs continues to increase, then the burden will be felt on the economy because governments will have less to spend (beyond interest payments). What’s remarkable is how much that cost of borrowing has risen since the pandemic. We are now at levels not experienced since the financial crisis, 18 years ago.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: technology stocks in the S&P 500, the US share of major-economy equities, household stock exposure and sovereign wealth funds. Together, they show how global wealth is becoming more exposed to US markets, pension design and state-owned capital.

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CHART 1 • Google’s free cash flow has turned negative

Free cash flow is the cash left over after a company has paid its running costs and capital spending. Alphabet is the parent company of Google, and it is very profitable. However, AI spending has become so large within the company that it has pushed quarterly free cash flow below zero.

Take a look at this chart from Semafor. During the second quarter of 2026, Alphabet reported minus $5.9 billion in free cash flow. This happened despite recording $119.8 billion in revenue.

Capital expenditure has become so large because of AI that it exceeded the cash Alphabet generated from its operations during the quarter. Free cash flow is calculated by subtracting capital expenditure from operating cash flow. In this instance, it result in a negative free cash flow.

That doesn’t mean Alphabet’s is losing money. It means the company is currently investing cash faster than it is generating it.

Source: Semafor

Alphabet needs to invest heavily in AI infrastructure. This means heavy investment today to reap the potential returns from AI tomorrow. There’s no guarantee that enough returns will come from this investment. That’s why markets are getting nervous about the large sums being invested in AI infrastructure.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: default-insurance costs for AI-heavy tech groups, US data-centre sites, renewable electricity contracts and Intel’s foundry question. Together, they show how AI spending is becoming visible in credit markets, local infrastructure, power procurement and chip accounts.

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CHART 1 • Rich countries have ten times as many doctors per person

A good healthcare system is often determined by the ability to fund it and ensure that you have enough doctors and nurses to treat patients. Quite often, healthcare systems are under strain because they lack the resources needed to take care of the population that cater for. This is what this chart is all about and the data behind it is quite interesting.

In 2022, high-income countries had an average of 3.8 doctors for every 1,000 people. In low-income countries, the figure was just 0.4, while the global average is around 1.9. Although this chart is four years old, it’s still very relevant today and this trend hasn’t dramatically changed since.

Of course, the number of doctors is only one part of the picture. Access to nurses, medicines, affordable treatment and good-quality hospitals also matters, particularly in rural areas. Even so, the gap is enormous. Wealthier countries have far more medical staff available, while poorer countries are trying to expand healthcare systems that are already losing workers to migration (to richer countries).

Source: Our World in Data

I would read the rest of this newsletter in the same frame of mind. What limits us in everyday life is often something we barely notice until it stops working. That could be the number of doctors, the availability of buses or the reliability of running water.

The danger is that we forget how fortunate we are to have the infrastructure we do today compared with our forefathers. We enjoy an incredibly high quality of life, and it is easy to overlook that when something does not work the way we expect it to.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: 2026 liveability scores, heatwave-driven cooling demand, Latin American venture capital and India’s largest trade deficits. Together, they show how daily life depends on staff, infrastructure, energy demand, capital allocation and trade exposure.

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CHART 1 • Poorer countries favour China more positively

If you listen to the current US administration, you could be forgiven for thinking that China is viewed negatively everywhere and that its position in the world is toxic. However, many poorer and middle-income countries judge China less through the lens of US security concerns and more by what it actually offers in trade, infrastructure and finance.

Across the countries surveyed for this data visualisation, favourable views of China tend to fall as income rises. The correlation with GDP per person is -0.50. Pakistan, Nigeria, Kenya, Malaysia and Thailand are among the most positive, while Japan, India, the US and much of northern Europe are far more sceptical.

Income levels do not explain the entire trend, but the pattern makes one thing clear: opinion in richer countries is not the same as global opinion. China can be deeply distrusted by many US allies and still find plenty of room to build goodwill elsewhere.

Source: Pew Research Center

It is easy to be drawn into a particular way of thinking simply because it appears to be the mainstream view. What we believe is often shaped by what we think everyone else believes. This is exactly the risk revealed by first chart. Ironically, these biases can also impact the way that we interpret data and other charts.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: America’s wrong-track polling, American pride by party and age, Amazon’s shareholder base and FIFA World Cup revenue. Together, they show how loyalty and power split across party, age, ownership and commercial incentives.

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CHART 1 • Britain’s high property-tax burden

Property in the UK is taxed heavily and unevenly, creating an unfair burden on certain parts of Britain. In aggregate, Britain has one of the highest property tax burdens among wealthy countries.

This chart puts UK property taxes at 3.7% of GDP in 2024, ahead of France and Canada at 3.4% and the US at 2.9%. This includes council tax, business rates, stamp duty and other taxes on owning, using or transferring property. In some ways, you could describe it as a stealth tax or an invisible wealth tax.

Whether the system is fair should be debated and perhaps that conversation should begin with this chart. Britain may not explicitly have a wealth tax, but that doesn't mean wealth is not taxed.

Source: Bloomberg

I would read the rest of this issue with one question in mind: who appears to pay, and who actually bears the tax burden? When I was at university, I remember learning in public economics that the goal of a good tax system is one that maximises tax revenue for the government, but minimises the burden on the taxpayer. That becomes difficult to measure if it's not transparent how people are being taxed.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: US sector debt, labour taxes in federal revenue, US manufacturing jobs and Trump’s technology-heavy portfolio. Together, they show how fiscal pressure moves between households, government balance sheets, workers, factories and politicians’ own market exposure.

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CHART 1 • Big Tech’s AI free cash flow is turning negative

Free cash flow is what remains after a company has covered its operating costs and capital spending. The reason I like it is because it cuts through much of the AI hype surrounding the technology companies covered by the media.

Even when demand is strong, a company can still burn through too much cash. For an AI company, this can result from spending on servers, chips, data centres, cooling systems and power. It must attract enough paying customers to cover those costs.

Take a look at this chart. Forecast free cash flow for Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle falls from $191 billion in 2025 to $19 billion in 2026, before recovering slightly to $26 billion in 2027. On the other side are suppliers such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Applied Materials, Micron and other chip-related companies, which are paid while the infrastructure is being built.

The decline is striking. Chipmakers collect revenue as capacity is added, but cloud companies must later prove that this capacity can generate sufficient returns after depreciation, power and other operating costs.

Source: Barchart

What I would watch out for now having look at this first chart, is the difference between the price demanded for AI and the cost of building it. It seems simple enough to compare, but it isn't. Neither metric is completely clear because cost today is often incurred to meet the demand in the future, which we don't fully comprehend yet. This is the risk investors face, yet for some reason many investors have assumed it with certainty.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: falling AI model prices, US data-centre concentration, young software-developer employment and selective software stock performance. Together, they show why the AI boom is now turning into a question about pricing, land, power, jobs and stock-market confidence.

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CHART 1 • Record heat is becoming much more common than record cold

Climate change can feel abstract when it is discussed through global averages. Record heat is more direct: it is what people feel in hot nights, stressed grids and outdoor work that becomes dangerous.

Paul Krugman’s chart compares record highs and lows with a climate that was not warming. Record heat is now roughly four times more common than expected, while cold records are about half as common.

A warmer baseline changes risk before any single day can be blamed on climate change. The current heatwave gives the pattern a setting, especially because dangerous overnight temperatures leave the body less chance to recover.

Source: Paul Krugman

Record heat turns an abstract baseline shift into something physical. Hot nights, strained grids and outdoor work make the change feel much less distant.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: the US baby boom, European drinking-water access, car dependability and food delivery before football half-time. Together, they show how large systems appear in family patterns, infrastructure, products and small habits.

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CHART 1 • Eastern Europe is carrying Europe’s defence burden

Europe is spending more on defence, but talking about “Europe” as a single bloc hides an important divide. Poland and the Baltic states are not increasing military spending simply to satisfy NATO targets. They are doing it because the threat from Russia feels immediate and sits close to their borders.

According to SIPRI’s estimates for 2025, Ukraine spent 39.6% of GDP on its military, while Russia spent 7.5%. Ukraine is obviously under severe pressure from Russia, a larger and better resourced invader. But Russia is still outspending much of Europe.

Poland was the third biggest spender at 4.5%, Latvia at 3.6%, Estonia at 3.4% and Lithuania at 3.1%. By comparison in Western Europe, Germany, France, Italy and the UK spent closer to 2.0% to 2.4%.

That doesn’t make western Europe’s spending insignificant, but it reflects a different sense of urgency and a different industrial starting point. Announcing larger budgets is one thing. Turning that money into ammunition, air-defence systems, drones, maintenance crews and trained soldiers is another. Europe’s eastern flank understands that distinction more clearly because it cannot afford not to.

Source: Visual Capitalist

There has been a lot of news about defence spending increasing. However, the real question that needs to be asked is how quickly will this money will deliver improved defence capabilities?

The problem is that a defence pledge is easy to announce. Getting it done properly is hard because it’s always more complex than it seems.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts I have here today: Iran’s strikes on US bases, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, critical-mineral prices and European hydropower sites for wind and solar. Together, they show why modern security is shaped by geography, stockpiles, supply chains and power connections as much as by headline budgets.

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CHART 1 • The richest Americans pay lower effective federal tax rates

Effective tax rate means the share of income actually paid in tax after the system has done its work. For the very rich, that is not captured by the top income-tax bracket alone.

This chart tracks the effective federal tax rate for the top 0.01% of Americans. The line has fallen sharply since the 1970s, with corporate and estate taxes doing less of the work.

There is a real modelling debate about who ultimately bears corporate tax. But the direction still matters. If wealth is concentrating while taxes attached to wealth are weakening, policy is helping decide who keeps the gains.

Source: Paul Krugman

The tax data push the inequality debate away from headline income-tax brackets. For the very rich, corporate taxes, estate taxes and asset ownership shape the effective burden.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: JPMorgan’s second-quarter profit, GE’s break-up, gold’s 2026 pullback and creator earnings. Together, they show how concentration can sit inside banks, corporate structures, asset prices and online attention.

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CHART 1 • The EU’s electric car trade has moved into surplus

Europe’s electric-car story is more complicated than a one-way Chinese takeover. Chinese exports are surging, but the EU data still show producers selling more electric cars abroad than they import.

This Financial Times chart puts 12-month running EU electric-car exports above imports through 2026. The recent context makes the split important: China’s monthly car exports passed 1 million in June, increasing the pressure on European manufacturers.

The surplus does not prove Europe is safe. It shows why the policy debate should separate import fear from export performance, because tariffs, subsidies and industrial policy depend on which problem is actually being solved.

Source: Financial Times

The electric-car surplus is not a comfort blanket. It is a reminder that trade pressure has several channels, and the right policy depends on identifying the channel correctly.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: Chinese imports into the EU, China’s PM2.5 pollution, Japan’s weak yen and Hormuz shipping. Together, they show how pressure can arrive through import substitution, coal and industrial demand, exchange rates and shipping insurance.

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CHART 1 • NATO Europe and Canada have added $1.2 trillion to defence

For years, the easy criticism was that Europe was not paying enough for its own defence. This chart suggests that line is now incomplete. The harder question is what the money can actually buy.

This Wall Street Journal visual, using NATO data, puts extra core defence spending by European members and Canada since 2014 at more than $1.2 trillion in 2021 prices. NATO says their combined defence spending rose nearly 20% in real terms in 2025, to about $571 billion, and is expected to rise again in 2026.

With Washington pushing allies to carry more of the burden, the figure is not a victory lap. It is a measure of how much catching up Europe still has to do. The Ankara summit turned that into practical questions about surveillance aircraft, missile production, transport capacity and air-defence supply chains. Money matters, but the next test is whether Europe can buy together and produce enough kit to make the higher budgets count.

Source: Wall Street Journal

The NATO number is only impressive if it can be turned into deployable force. The next question is not whether Europe can announce higher spending, but whether it can buy together, build faster and keep enough equipment ready.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: UK regular forces, UK defence-spending plans, global power perceptions and Russian seaborne crude. Together, they show the practical tests behind hard power: people, budgets, reputation and the routes sanctions cannot fully close.

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CHART 1 • Big Tech AI spending is eating free cash flow

Free cash flow is the money left after a company has paid its running costs and investments. In this case, it shows who is getting paid by the AI buildout and who is carrying the cost.

This Semafor chart compares four-quarter average free cash flow for Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle (the hyperscalers) with semiconductor companies including Nvidia, Micron, Applied Materials and Broadcom. Bank of America expects supplier free cash flow to rise towards about $120 billion, while the buyers’ free cash flow falls towards zero.

The semiconductor companies get cash as data centres are built. The cloud platforms have to spend before customers have proved how much they will pay for AI services. The buildout can be real and still drain cash from the companies building it.

Source: Semafor

Free cash flow puts timing back into the AI debate. The chips are bought now; the revenue needed to justify them has to arrive later.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: Nvidia’s data-centre revenue, S&P 500 concentration, SpaceX analyst targets and long US stock-market returns. Together, they show why AI enthusiasm still has to pass through cash flow, revenue concentration, valuation discipline and drawdown risk.

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CHART 1 • Orbital launches are crowding the skies

Space used to be easy to picture as a series of rare national moments. The launch calendar now looks more like an industrial schedule.

Global orbital launches rose sharply through the early 2020s and reached a record in 2025. The 2026 bar is only year to date, but it is already high enough to show that the boom has not faded.

More launches mean more satellites, more data, more debris risk and more private infrastructure in orbit. Space is becoming a working commercial system, not just a place for national missions. The launch count is one way to see that economy being built.

Source: Financial Times

This chart makes the space economy tangible. More launches mean more infrastructure, more business, more congestion and more privately owned hardware in orbit.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: global AI adoption, whale catches since 1985, the media bias map and world population by latitude and longitude. Together, they show how scale can make a familiar story harder to ignore.

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CHART 1 • US lawmakers represent more people than almost anywhere else

Representation is partly a numbers problem. The more people each lawmaker represents, the harder it is for politics to feel personal or responsive.

Pew’s comparison puts the US House at roughly 800,000 people per representative, far above most countries in this comparison. Only India is in a larger category among the highlighted examples.

No chart can tell you the right size for a chamber. It can show why American voters feel remote from Congress. One elected official is being asked to stand in for a very large public, which affects casework, campaigning and the basic sense that a representative can know the people they represent.

Source: Pew Research Center

Representation is usually argued through parties and ideology. The cleaner starting point is arithmetic: how many people is one politician meant to know, understand and speak for?

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: the UK’s social-rental stock, OECD immigration growth, Chinese real estate prices and global working hours. Together, they show how housing, migration, property wealth and work can strain institutions that once looked adequate.

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CHART 1 • Most US voters say the Iran war was not worth the cost

Wars are often sold through strength, credibility and resolve. Voters tend to ask a simpler question: was it worth the cost?

The FT/Focaldata poll puts 58% of US voters in the not-worth-it camp on financial cost, against 28% who say it was worth it. Another question finds more voters saying the US is weaker than before the war.

The poll does not decide the strategic case. It shows the political limit. A foreign-policy victory still needs domestic consent if the bill is visible and the gain is hard to explain. Voters are judging the war as a cost question as well as a security question.

Source: Financial Times

This polling chart asks the question politicians often try to outrun. Military action needs a story voters can understand once the bill arrives.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: Strait of Hormuz traffic, Aramco’s oil discount, crude prices returning to pre-war levels and European defence spending near Russia. Together, they show how war costs move through voters, shipping, oil markets and budgets.

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CHART 1 • Nvidia is the world’s most valuable company

The top of the stock market now shows where investors expect the next big profits to come from. The largest companies are no longer a mixed collection of oil groups, banks, retailers and industrials.

This ranking puts Nvidia at about $4.7 trillion, ahead of Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC and SpaceX. The list is dominated by companies tied to AI chips, cloud platforms, software distribution and digital infrastructure.

Market value is not a scoreboard of usefulness. It is what investors are willing to pay for expected profits. The striking part is how much of that expectation now sits with a small group of technology platforms.

Source: Semafor

A market-cap ranking is never only a leaderboard. It is a live price on where investors think the next pool of profit will sit.

Paid subscribers get access to the other four charts: Nvidia’s historical market weight, Big Tech profit density, hedge fund crowding and US after-tax profits. Together, they show how concentration appears in index weights, company margins, fund positioning and the US profit share.

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